Post Paddock Stakes ratings defy logic!

HERE is a letter form Form Bloodstock’s Jehan Malherbe to Mike de Kock Racing about the ratings given to Queen Supreme and others in the race, following Saturday’s G1 Paddock Stakes:

Malherbe writes:

Hi Mike,

I’m not one to sling off about the Handicappers, it’s a very difficult job, but their explanation regarding the rating of the Paddock Stakes has got me beaten.

Firstly, the fact that it was really true run race (unusual for South Africa, not just Cape Town) would add credence to the result being a true reflection of merit.

Secondly, as a casual observation (and not a scientific analysis), I would thought  – that in trouncing a good field in a true run Gr1 race- Queen Supreme probably ran the race of her life.

(Admittedly, that’s merely a gut feel, not a scientific assessment.)

Now let’s analyze the Handicappers’ post race assessment.

I would just like to highlight 5 points:

1 – They state that Queen Supreme ran 2 lb below her best ability.
(Maybe they’re right, but please let me be there they day she does run to her real ability!

2- They used Clouds Unfold as the “line horse”.
But wait a minute, not off her published rating of 124.

No, instead they decided to use her rating of 119 – which she showed at her last start against the colts.

Now that’s fair enough if they believe she has a confirmed rating of 119.

(Obviously the line horse’s rating needs to be rock solid- all the other ratings are determined by it.)

But hold on- Clouds Unfold (the confirmed line horse at 119) exits the race at 122.

Go figure!!!

3. – Princess Calla (beaten a short head-i.e. less than 1lb) by Clouds Unfold, exits the race at 116.

If Clouds Unfold is 122, Princess Calla can’t be less than 121.

If Clouds Unfold is 119, Princess Calla can’t be less than 118.

(Remember the weight received by Princess Calla is just her WFA allowance- in essence it’s a ‘level weights” race)

4 – Chat Ching gets beaten 2lb by Princess Calla.

Princess Calla is now 116, so Chat Ching goes to 114.

No complaint with that logic, as long as Princess Calla was given the correct rating in the first place.

5 – Sing Out Loud exits the race 108. She was beaten 0.5 by Chat Ching (now 114)

That makes Sing Out Loud 113. Not 108!.

Sing Out Loud was beaten 1.5 lengths (3 lb) by Clouds Unfold- who may have run 119, but exits the race 122.

Sing Out Loud either runs 119 or at worst 116. How do they arrive at 108?

If Clouds Unfold (now 122) meets Sing Out Loud (now 108) in a handicap next time, she will be asked to concede 14lb to Sing Out Loud (excluding any WFA allowance).

That’s per the official handicappers rating of them post race.

(They have just met at WFA and Sing Out Loud was beaten 3lb.Now she will get 14 lb!)

(And Sing Out Loud- beaten 8lb by Queen Supreme- would now receive 18lb from her in a handicap)

I thought I knew something about handicapping, but clearly I’m out of my depth.

Any clues to help me comprehend their logic?

Jehan Malherbe

FORM BLOODSTOCK