MIKEdekockracing.com’s erstwhile contributor Bernard Iker is an astute form analyst who bets successfully on horses following one general rule: Don’t Look Beyond The Obvious!

He vehemently denies rumours that a proportion of the Kruger Millions are stashed under his mattress – something once revealed by a love interest who’d spent  a weekend at Bernie’s and got more than she’d hoped for.

Like most professional gamblers, Iker spends most of his off days off  in the local bistro, sampling fine cousine and dessert wins. At one lunch this week he decided to cast an eye on the 2014 Vodacom Durban July runners.  He applied his tested racing rule and mailed us this short preview with his tips at the end.

Make sure you leave some spare cash in your tote account for ‘boxed’ swingers. Keep it simple, combine his four choices. He’s a lucky old swinger himself, our Bernie!

Headline photo by Hamish Niven for the purpose of illustration only. (hamishnivenphotography.co.za)

KING OF PAIN – earned the highest rating of his career when winning the Gold Challenge in his most recent start.  He got 7lbs for that win and having shown his best form over a mile, the irreverent Joey Ramsden is probably more hopeful than expectant.  That said, I spoke with him this morning, he tells me King Of Pain is looking a picture and the distance will be no problem.

CAPETOWN NOIR’S  trip to Johannesburg, when an unlucky loser to Yorker, seems to have taken the shine off him.  His last two starts have been ordinary by his standards, his best races are over a mile, he now also tries blinkers for the first time.   As with Joey, I think Dean Kannemeyer is also hopeful rather than expectant.

TELLINA – has good, consistent form to Yorker and seems to have the measure of WYLIE HALL.  Of the top five you could argue that he makes most appeal over this trip, although, his last start and his only previous visit to Greyville, would leave you far from confident.

WHITELINE FEVER – is as honest as they come, the 2200m is probably just beyond him.  He has not been lazy, this will be his fourteenth tart since last year’s race.  Once again I suspect we will see him finish 5^th or 6^th.

ESPUMANTI has risen 7 lbs in the handicap for her last two good performances.  She is 2.5KG worse off to both PUNTA ARENAS and HALVE THE DEFICIT and 1 kg worse off  to CHERRY ON THE TOP.  On a line through Beach Beauty she looks held, however, she is Northern Hemisphere bred and could well be up to it over this trip.

PUNTA ARENAS appears the perennial bridesmaid, I’m not sure he is good enough to win the race, but could place.

CHERRY ON THE TOP looks to be regaining her old form, she meets TELLINA and HALVE THE DEFICIT on the same terms as last time.  Given her draw and her conditioner’s perceived poor ability to travel horses, you would fancy that she will find it difficult to turn the tables on HALVE THE DEFICIT.

LEGISLATE has won the Cape Derby, The KZN Guineas and the Daily News 2000, ordinarily you would expect that this would be more than enough to see you priced up as a short favourite.  One can only assume that this is a result of the presence of triple crown winner LOUIS THE KING and the market being uneasy about the ability of the three year old crop.

LOUIS has done it all and is Gauteng’s answer to LEGISLATE.  He jumped poorly in the Daily News 2000 and it was a miracle that he ran 3^rd, beaten just over a length.  LOUIS had a hard Autumn season and no doubt would not have been close to his best for the Daily News 2000. He now receives 0.5 kg from LEGISLATE, this together with being at his peak may well prove the difference this time.

RAKE’S CHESTNUT is an interesting runner, not only has he had a mere four starts, however one of those does give us a line through to the older horses.  He ran a half a length 2^nd to Lockheed Star when in receipt of 6kg’s. LS in turn ran 6 lengths to Yorker in the Horse Chestnut (yes over a mile), and the three year olds are not getting 6 kgs from the likes of Cape Town Noir and Tellina – so how good are the three year olds?  RAKE’S CHESTNUT may well have run to a 109 in the Daily News, however, I think there are valid reasons why he got so close to LEGISLATE and LOUIS.  I would rather he franked that run before I backed him.

HALVE THE DEFICIT has consistent form, is well drawn, well weighted, is trained by a top trainer and ridden by an experienced and wily jockey in the form of Pierre Strydom.  He may lack a little class, but has a lot of other factors in his favour.

JET BELLE is poorly drawn and looks to be held by other runners.

CAPTAIN AMERICA has consistent form to LEGISLATE, and now receiving 2 kg’s from him should get closer, I’m not convinced he will get past him though.

IN THE FAST LANE looks to have a lot to do on her run to Beach Beauty back in January.  No doubt she has improved and she seemed to enjoy the step up in trip last time, I don’t think you can leave her out.

FUTURA is one of the most interesting horses to make the cut.  He carries a big reputation, however, I am not convinced his form reflects what he is obviously showing at home.  In the consolation 1900m he beat Gifted To Glory (rated 98) by a length and a quarter.    FUTURA followed this up with a disappointing third behind One Cool Dude in the Cup Trial.  These two runs have seen him go up 19lbs in the merit rating to a 104.  LEGISLATE and LOUIS are dual Grade 1 winners, FUTURA’s exposed form looks far weaker than the 6 and 5 lbs inferior that he is rated.

I fancy LOUIS to remain King, chased home by LEGISLATE, ESPUMANTI and HALVE THE DEFICIT.

Selections: 10-9-6-12.
Bernard Iker’s Value Quartet: 10x 6/9/12 x 6/9/12 x Field (R78).