HORSES make heroes but more often fools of men. The results of Saturday’s Gr1 features for two-year-olds on Gold Cup Day at Greyville served as a reminder to form students not to make final assessments of young thoroughbreds before they’ve proven themselves in handicaps against older horses.

Racing relentlessly nurtures widely differing opinions and the temptation to be proven ‘right’, but this is the fastest way to the poorhouse. Biased bettors get a hiding time after time. Many fall into the trap of labeling precocious two-year-olds ‘superstars’ or describing certain crops as ‘well above average’ or ‘way superior’ to a preceding group.  Inflexible horseplayers invariably get their juvenile ‘bankers’ beaten and have a knack of blaming their losses on crookery or ‘graft’.

After Saturday’s Premier’s Champion Stakes the two-year-old picture is somewhat blurred. Harry’s Son (AUS, orange cap), held off Jayyed (nearest camera), with MLJet (middle) and Anjaal (far side) also well in the mix. Who will be the best next season?

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While the wheat is sorted from the chaff, spare a thought for the handicapper (merit rater if you will) who has a truly difficult task, especially when it comes to two-year-olds. A number of factors unique to the two-year-old category come into play – the lack of exposed form is arguably the most important among them. In theory, the greater the volume of exposed form, the easier it is for the handicapper (or form student) to make an accurate assessment of a runner’s ability. When physical immaturity, inexperience or sudden unexpected improvement are added to the mix the margin for error (and betting losses on ‘boom’ two-year-olds’) increases dramatically.

Take a look below at the handicapper’s unofficial assessment of runners engaged in Saturday’s Gr1 Premiers Champion Stakes and the Gr1 Thekwini Stakes, published as a pre-race guide on Friday by tabonline.

Reflecting on the final results illustrates how hard it is to make a call on the ability of individual young runners at the start of their careers. The panel’s shadow ratings were almost spot-on in a few cases, but way off the mark in others.

The unofficial ratings of runners (high to low) before the Premier’s Stakes, with final placings in brackets, and lengths behind the winner:

AFRIKABURN 110  (8)  5.05
HARRY’S SON (Aus) 106  (1) 0.00
ANJAAL  103  (3 DH) 0.25
JAYYED 102  (2) 0.15
AMAZING STRIKE 100  (6) 2.75
MLJET 99  (3DH) 0.25
CAPTAIN CLIPPER 98  (14) 18.75
ILLUMINATI 94  (9) 5.15
FIRE HORSE 93  (13) 9.00
LIGHT THE LIGHTS 92 (5) 1.25
LOCK HIM UP 98  (10) 5.40
IMPERIAL GOLD 88  (12) 8.50
ROCK ME VAR 87   (7) 5.00
MOOTAHADEE (Aus) 86  (11) 8.40

Considerations for the handicapper when allocating official ratings for the new racing season:

–Harry’s Son, Anjaal and Jayyed ran close to their ratings, franking their quality.
–Afrikaburn ran patently well below his exposed form, or didn’t see out the mile. Is this run best ignored?
-MLJet is arguably between 3-5 points better than his rating.
-Light The Lights could be between 6-8 points better than his rating.
–Jayyed, yet to win a race, was rated 3 points clear of MLJet, who beat him by 1.5-lengths in their only encounter. Jayyed’s subsequent Gr1 run was given merit preference and the form was franked, though he still showed clear signs of inexperience, seems to have a few lengths in the tank and in time could well prove to be several points better than rated.

The unofficial ratings of runners (high to low) before the Thekwini Stakes, with final placings in brackets, and lengths behind the winner:

ALBORAN SEA 109  (9) 6.70
CARRY ON ALICE 109  (2) 0.05
BILATERAL 104  (3) 2.05
PINE PRINCESS 101  (7) 3.90
GREY LIGHT 95  (6) 3.40
SAME JURISDICTION 93   (1) 0.00
BANBURY 89 (4) 2.15
LITTLEBLACKNUMBER 88  (12) 12.20
SEVEN GRAND 86  (11) 9.70
MIDDLE EARTH  83  (13) 14.45
PENNINGTON SANDS  83  (5) 2.65
LEMON TEA  81  (10) 7.45
RUN FOR REVELRY  81 (8) 6.65

Considerations for the handicapper when allocating official ratings for the new racing season:

-Both Carry On Alice and Bilateral ran to their assessed ratings.
-There were noted stamina doubts about top-rated Alboran Sea, but even so this didn’t look like her best performance. Pine Princess, too, appeared a notch below her best judged on her last run. Ignore their runs, consider they’ve had a tough season, or drop their ratings?
-There is now enough evidence to suggest that Banbury is a high quality filly whose rating should be closer to 100 than to 90.
-Improving Pennington Sands is arguably between 10-15 points better than her rating, one to watch.
-The winner Same Jurisdiction confirmed the strong suspicion that she is from the top drawer. Level with, a point above or perhaps even below Carry On Alice, who arguably would have beaten her in one more stride?

What will transpire next season when these two-year-olds approach maturity? Who will improve more, perhaps become dominant in their age group or prove good enough to beat the leading older fillies and mares? Who will not train on and fade from the scene? Is there a spook in the pack yet to emerge? Do you want to make a prediction? Have you spotted mistakes in this article and do you wish to make your prowess known to the world? Who is most deserving of winning the Equus Two-Year-Old Awards?

Do you want to be a handicapper?

Not for babies, this game of racing!